Wednesday, February 16, 2022

CDC Exploited the 2021 Teen Vaping Survey, But Still Withholds Raw Data from Independent Researchers

 

For years, I have objected that federal agencies selectively release information from their national surveys months or years before making the data available to all external researchers (here, here, here, here and here).  This practice guarantees that government officials control the narrative about behaviors that they deplore.  The Centers for Disease Control and the Food and Drug Administration have perfected this practice, perpetuating the myth of a teen vaping “epidemic” by releasing selected narrative-reinforcing data points from the annual National Youth Tobacco Survey long before providing outsiders with the raw data. 

Interestingly, while the CDC quietly acknowledged that the so-called epidemic had subsided in 2020, and that teen vaping rates plummeted in 2021 (here), the agency’s PR machine continued to generate sensational storylines:

“E-Cigarette Use in Teens Prevalent During COVID-19 Pandemic” (here)

“E-cigarette use among youth remains a serious public health issue during the COVID-19 pandemic” (here)

“CDC, FDA data find 2 million current teen e-cigarette users” (here)

Jacob Sullum, a senior editor at Reason magazine, said this about the government response to 2021 NYTS data: “The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), which conducts the survey, and the Food and Drug Administration (FDA), which regulates ‘electronic nicotine delivery systems,’ both welcomed this evidence that the ‘epidemic’ of underage vaping is abating. Just kidding.”  In fact, Sullum accused the agencies of ignoring the decline in underage vaping precisely because it weakens the case for government action.

The CDC’s timing of data dumps is telling. Tobacco research and policy experts were not only impressed by the teen vaping decrease in 2020, but also by the speed in which the CDC released that year’s NYTS data.  The agency published its report on teen vaping on December 18 (here), and released underlying data on December 21 (here). 

The 2021 NYTS is being handled differently. The CDC published its corresponding report on October 1, but over four months later, the data is still under wraps.  It’s hard to say if the delay is related to the sharp decrease in teen vaping last year, but it is clear that the delay allows the crisis narrative to persist. That is unacceptable.

 

 

Thursday, February 10, 2022

UC San Diego Claims No Evidence for Quit-Smoking Via E-Cigarettes, Medicines or Cold Turkey

 

The anti-tobacco journal Tobacco Control just published another e-cigarette study by Dr. John Pierce and co-workers from the University of California San Diego (here).  I’ve dissected Pierce’s previous work here, here and here. 

This time, Pierce’s group used the FDA’s Population Assessment of Tobacco and Health Survey to determine what aids current and former smokers used to quit and how successful they were.  As in his earlier work, Pierce counted anyone who took even one puff on a cigarette as a failed quitter.   

First, let’s look at the main results, from Tables 3 and 4 of the study

 

From Pierce Table 3. Abstinence From Cigarettes (Even 1 Puff) for 12+ Months Among Smokers Who Used Various Products in their Last Quit Attempt
ProductNumberPercent Abstinent



E-cigarettes3199%
Other tobacco5814%
Any medicine48916%
Nothing1,61319%



All2,47917%



 

From Pierce Table 4. Abstinence From Cigarettes (Even 1 Puff) for 12+ Months Among Recent Former Smokers Who Used Tobacco Products
ProductNumberPercent Abstinent



E-cigarettes

Daily9645%
Nondaily5229%



Other tobacco

Daily6538%
Nondaily9943%



No tobacco57653%



 

Dr. Pierce provided generous click-bait quotes to the media, including the following:

“This is the first time we found e-cigarettes to be less popular than FDA-approved pharmaceutical aids, such as medications or the use of patches, gum, or lozenges.”

To render e-cigarettes as “less popular,” Dr. Pierce first gamed the numbers by combining smokers trying any prescription medicine and/or six different nicotine products, four of which are available over-the-counter. 

Furthermore, who can blame American smokers for vapor’s declining popularity?  They have been told incessantly, and incorrectly, that e-cigarettes are as or more dangerous than combustible cigarettes. 

Dr. Pierce opined, “There's no evidence that the use of e-cigarettes is an effective cessation aid,” and he doubled down on that position in an email to United Press International: “We are not finding any evidence in this very large nationally representative study that smokers who switch to get their nicotine from e-cigarettes are less likely to relapse back to cigarette smoking.”  

Frankly, if one sees no evidence for e-cigarettes in the above tables, one would have to conclude that there's no evidence that anything is an effective cessation aid. 

What did the Pierce study actually document in comparing e-cigarettes and FDA-approved medicines?  Co-author Karen Messer, Ph.D., said, “using e-cigarettes to help a quit attempt resulted in seven fewer successful quitters [out of 100] than were seen with approved pharmaceutical cessation aids.”

Drs. Pierce and Messer emphasized those seven for a reason: their one-puff abstinence rate was only 9% for e-cigarette users versus 16% for medicine users.  Both aids helped some smokers quit, but they failed 91% and 84% of the smokers who tried them.

With failure rates like these, smokers who are desperate to quit should have access to every safer option.  It doesn’t matter which quit aid smokers use, so long as it works for them.  Smokers also deserve far more rigorous analysis and forthright counsel than that provided by abstinence-only activists.

 

 

Tuesday, February 1, 2022

FDA Blunders Again, Endorsing Reduced Nicotine Cigarettes Today…and 27 Years Ago

 

The Well News on January 25 published my commentary on the FDA’s recent regulatory blunder of approving a cigarette that provides all of the smoke but almost none of the nicotine of a traditional cigarette. 

Upon its publication, I received a number of critical emails suggesting that I had failed to properly research the issue.  In fact, those critics failed to do their due diligence on me.  To help them, here is another analysis I published on the subject – back in 1995.

A group of tobacco reformers, led by the Food and Drug Administration Commissioner, has a new regulatory strategy: reduce the amount of nicotine in cigarettes. The theory is that the nicotine concentration of cigarettes will be too low to allow nicotine addiction to be established in new smokers. In the meantime the strategy is intended to serve as a (mandatory) national withdrawal program for the nation’s current smokers.

 

The FDA commissioner has collaborators in this regulatory quest at the highest levels of academia and government. Two well known experts on nicotine addiction, Dr. Neal Benowitz from the University of California at San Francisco and Dr. Jack Henningfield from the National Institute on Drug Abuse, wrote an editorial in the New England Journal of Medicine essentially endorsing the fadeout plan. Although they admitted that “a threshold for nicotine addiction is a theoretical concept ...,” these researchers still postulated a safe concentration of nicotine in cigarettes that would prevent addiction in new smokers. To reach this level, the FDA would have to order a reduction in nicotine content from about eight milligrams per cigarette to about one-half of a milligram, representing a 94 percent reduction.

 

Although the fadeout idea has not been tested with regard to prevention, the plan has been studied for many years as a smoking cessation option. It is basically a drawn-out variation of a strategy called nicotine fading, in which the smoker’s exposure to nicotine is gradually reduced to very low levels. The concept was first introduced in 1979, and numerous trials, usually combining nicotine fading with other behavioral modifications, were conducted throughout the 1980’s.

 

In a recent review of 21 different quit-smoking strategies, nicotine fading came in with an unsurprising success rate — about 25 percent. Dr. Michael C. Fiore, director of the Center for Tobacco Research and Intervention at the University of Wisconsin, questioned the effectiveness of this strategy in helping current smokers quit. Of course if the FDA has its way, this program will not be optional. In other words, a large percentage of current smokers may not find this forced nicotine withdrawal a pleasant experience. What will they do?

 

As they did with low tar low nicotine cigarettes and those with filters, smokers will initially respond to the nicotine phase-out plan by smoking more often and more intensely. Benowitz and Henningfield acknowledged this problem in their editorial. They responded by saying that these smokers’ “short-term (ten-year) risk may be offset by the long-term benefit of a greater likelihood that they will quit smoking (as cigarettes become less satisfying) and by the enormous benefit of preventing nicotine addiction in future generations.”  In other words, they are sorry if your risks increase for ten years because you can't quit, but maybe you'll quit anyway and besides, maybe your children won't get hooked.

 

Another drawback to the fadeout plan is its potential to spawn another huge illicit drug problem. The FDA commissioner commented that “even if we don’t ban cigarettes, we could create a black market by removing the nicotine too quickly.” He seems to believe that the problem is avoidable simply by reducing the nicotine slowly. He is undaunted: “We need to withdraw it at just the right pace, letting the addiction fade as we reduce the nicotine.”

 

There are other fundamental problems with the strategy. For example, setting a threshold level of nicotine exposure below which it is not addictive is an extremely speculative tactic. This would imply that there may be a “safe” level of consumption for all addictions including alcohol, cocaine, and heroin.  A caffeine comparison serves us well here. Utilizing the same rationale concerning effect on body function (addictive potential) and intent (ability to manipulate levels), the FDA has ruled that caffeine is a food additive at concentrations up to 0.02 percent. This amounts to 72 milligrams of caffeine in a twelve-ounce soda. The FDA designates over-the-counter products containing caffeine (up to 200 milligrams per dose) as stimulants. Consistency is not a strong feature of the FDA’s caffeine policy, because a twelve-ounce serving of coffee can have as much as 400 milligrams of caffeine.

 

The important lesson from the caffeine analysis is that the FDA can draw on a precedent for every aspect of the nicotine fading strategy. The plan seems to be bolstered by an elegant scientific rationale, and it superficially appears to be a new and creative approach to the problem of nicotine addiction. However, that's where the real problem lies. Because antitobacco groups have passed judgement on nicotine addiction, they have focused all of their energy on eradicating tobacco. The nicotine fade is simply a thinly veiled disguise for tobacco prohibition.

 

That was my view, published 27 years ago in my clearly timeless book, For Smokers Only: How Smokeless Tobacco Can Save Your Life. Dr. David Kessler was FDA Commissioner at the time.

At the FDA, despite dramatic advances in tobacco science, virtually nothing has changed.