Showing posts with label National Highway Traffic Safety Administration. Show all posts
Showing posts with label National Highway Traffic Safety Administration. Show all posts

Wednesday, November 23, 2016

Motorcycles Aren't Cars and Cigarettes Aren't Smoke-Free Tobacco



What if the federal government told you that cars are as dangerous as motorcycles?  Well, you would be living – and dying – in TobaccoWorld.  Read my commentary that appeared in the Washington Examiner (here) and is reprinted below.
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Motorcycles are more dangerous than cars. We know this because a government agency, the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration, routinely provides data that confirms it.

For example, the NHSTA reports there were 0.85 auto-related deaths for every 100 million miles Americans drove in 2014. By contrast, the death rate for motorcycles was 22.96 for every 100 million miles, making motorcycles 27 times deadlier than cars.

What if the government ignored this difference in risk and assumed the motorcycle death rate applied to all vehicles? In other words, what if all vehicle manufacturers had to be governed by motorcycle regulations and what if insurance premiums for car owners were pegged at the much higher rates for motorcycles?

The effect of such irrationality would be intolerable, with cars priced out of reach, companies put out of business and consumers left without choice. Policymakers would never inflict such pain on the American driving public – at least, not on purpose.

But that's just the sort of irrationality being imposed on the nation’s consumers of smoke-free tobacco products, with tragic consequences. Federal agencies routinely conflate the risks of using smoke-free tobacco products with the risks of smoking, despite decades of scientific studies demonstrating that smoke-free products are vastly safer than cigarettes.

Smokeless tobacco products are required by the Food and Drug Administration to carry demonstrably inaccurate and misleading safety warnings. Companies that attempt to challenge those messages are held to the unnecessary and financially crippling standard of proving that their products would have virtually no health impact on the population.

Even when a company did provide irrefutable proof to change the warning labels in 2011, the FDA took four years to deny its citizen’s petition. Another company’s formal application from 2014 remains in FDA limbo.

The FDA ignores extensive evidence from federal surveys of the role e-cigarettes are playing in helping smokers to quit—including some 2.5 million successes—while the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention withholds evidence that smokeless tobacco is safer. 

The Affordable Care Act permits health insurers to charge higher premiums for any recreational nicotine use, not just smoking.  Most life insurance companies also fail to recognize established risk differences, as they charge higher premiums for users of all nicotine products, even medicines. 

No one confuses motorcycles with cars, just as no one, other than government officials, confuses cigarettes with e-cigarettes or cans of moist snuff. The risk differential between combustible and smoke-free tobacco products is proven and profound. It’s time to tell the public the truth, and to regulate accordingly. 



Thursday, October 6, 2016

The Truth About Traffic: Putting Fatalities in Context



In my lectures, I often provide context about the risks associated with use of tobacco products by comparing those behaviors with the use of automobiles.  Putting risk in context is important, as can be demonstrated by focusing on traffic safety data alone.

The U.S. National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) recently reported that there were 35,092 traffic fatalities in 2015 – a small increase from the previous year (here).  Some media reports treated the incremental change as if it demonstrated a growing epidemic.  National Public Radio headlined their story, “Largest increase in decades” (here), and CBS called it the “Largest increase in a half century” (here).  Transportation Secretary Anthony Foxx said in a press release (here), “…far too many people are killed on our nation's roads every year…we're issuing a call to action and asking researchers, safety experts, data scientists, and the public to analyze the fatality data and help find ways to prevent these tragedies.” 

Reducing carnage is certainly a worthy goal, but NHTSA ought to kill the hype and present traffic fatality statistics in a meaningful fashion.  In past years, NHTSA framed fatality rates based on population (e.g., deaths per 100,000 residents) or on vehicle miles traveled (see Table 2 of last year’s report here).  Those rates are more meaningful than press release hyperbole such as, “2,348 more people died in traffic crashes compared to previous year.” (here) 

This year’s NHTSA report downplayed the miles traveled rate and omitted the population rate.  Fortunately, using Census Bureau data, one can calculate the latter.  The chart shows both rates since 2005.

Traffic fatality rates, after falling almost continuously for several decades, have been stable since around 2009.  The small 2014/2015 uptick to 11 deaths per 100,000 population or 1 billion miles traveled is not an increase of epidemic proportions.

The risk of traveling by automobile in the U.S. remains very small.