Japan’s IQOS Experience Suggests Product Could Reduce U.S. Cigarette Consumption

An FDA advisory committee this week will vote whether to recommend that the FDA grants modified risk status to Philip Morris International’s IQOS heat-not-burn tobacco product (here).  A positive vote would acknowledge that the product poses a lower risk and/or lower exposure to toxins than cigarettes.

The committee’s activity is garnering considerable media attention, but the larger issue is: Will the FDA permit IQOS sales in the U.S.?  In order for that to happen, the agency must approve the company’s premarket tobacco application (PMTA).

IQOS is already available in 31 countries, with Japanese sales initiated in 2016.  The chart at left shows that Japanese consumption of IQOS heat sticks (green) in 2017 coincided with a 14% annual decline in cigarette consumption (red), compared with 2-3% decline in cigarette sales over the previous 5 years.

The Japanese experience suggests that IQOS MRTP designation by the FDA could have a significant downward effect on American cigarette consumption.