Further Evidence That CDC’s National Youth Tobacco Survey Exaggerates Teen Vaping Rates

 

The National Survey on Drug Use and Health (NSDUH) is a valuable federal resource for population-level research on tobacco and other substance use.  Analyzing its data, I have published research on how many Americans smoke (here, here, here and here), the illegitimacy of the gateway claim (here), and the role of smoking and smokeless tobacco (ST) use in past-year psychiatric disorders (here).  I have shared in this blog other important NSDUH insights into how many Americans use ST (here), who smokes menthols (here and here), and teen smoking declines before and during the e-cigarette era (here and here).  I have also noted that federal officials use NSDUH to spin their prohibition narratives (here).

Today I report an important development: In 2021 and 2022, NSDUH collected information on vaping.  The chart at left presents the most important data from these surveys: smoking/vaping rates among high schoolers, compared to data from the National Youth Tobacco Survey (NYTS). 

Now we have further evidence that NYTS grossly exaggerates teen vaping rates.  The chart at left shows that NSDUH vaping rates in 2021-2022 among high schoolers are much lower than the rates reported in NYTS, which I previously demonstrated were higher than those reported in the FDA’s Population Assessment of Tobacco and Health Survey (here and here) and the federal Knowledge Panel (here). 

As I documented in a peer-reviewed journal (here), NSDUH adult smoking rates tend to be higher than rates reported from NHIS.  That result also holds true for high schoolers, as seen in the chart. 

My research has shown that the higher adult smoking prevalence estimates in NSDUH may be due to the survey’s inclusion as current smokers those persons who smoked as infrequently as one day in the past month.  That is not the case here, however, as NYTS also counts as current any high schooler smoking one day in the past month.

It is unsurprising that the CDC counts high school vapers using only the bloated NYTS survey, and that little research has been conducted to assess its accuracy.  Furthermore, government officials at the CDC and other agencies largely ignore legitimate surveys from NSDUH, PATH and Knowledge Panel when they should consider all available evidence before making claims about teen vaping.

 

Who Smokes Menthols? 2020 Update from a Federal Survey

 

Four years ago, I discussed the characteristics of Americans who are menthol smokers, based on data in the CDC’s 2015 National Health Interview Survey (NHIS), the agency’s main instrument for monitoring U.S. smoking trends, including consumption of menthol products.  Despite the FDA’s strong interest in banning menthol smokes, the CDC did not collect menthol information again until 2022.  Since that data is not yet public, I am using the National Survey on Drug Use and Health (NSDUH) to update my analysis.

The FDA and its prohibition partners promote a menthol ban as a way to save Black smokers’ lives. An examination of all U.S. cigarette smokers and those who smoke menthols, as shown in the table at the left, shows the facts are far more nuanced.   

First, according to NSDUH, there were just over 40 million U.S. adult smokers in 2020.  That is almost 10 million more than reported by the CDC using the same year’s NHIS.  This will come as no surprise for followers of my work.  Thirteen years ago, I published an analysis in the journal Public Health demonstrating that NSDUH smoking estimates are much higher than those from NHIS.  It is conceivable that the NSDUH estimate is more accurate because it counts irregular smokers, as discussed here.*

The table shows that Black men (2 million) and women smokers (2.4 million) prefer menthol cigarettes (73% and 88%), but White and Hispanic smokers also consume menthol products.  Thirty-nine percent of White women smokers (almost 5 million) favor menthol, followed by White men (28%, 3.7 million); 48% of Hispanic men (1.6 million) and 55% of Hispanic women  (1.2 million) prefer menthol.

A menthol ban will disproportionately affect a larger percentage of Black smokers.  However, since 43% of all U.S. smokers preferred menthol in 2020, all racial and ethnic groups will be harried.

 

*Although I explain and justify my use of NSDUH here, the FDA also used this survey when it wants to exaggerate the numbers.  See my post last year: https://rodutobaccotruth.blogspot.com/2022/05/fda-unveils-new-smoker-numbers-to.html 

@CDCTobaccoFree is Obsessed with Teen Vaping, But It Has Reduced Far More Harmful Teen Smoking

 

Yesterday the CDC released results from this year's National Youth Tobacco Survey, and the agency focused only on teen vaping.  The data will likely be embargoed for several months, preventing analysis by independent investigators.  The CDC never mentioned smoking, so I expanded findings from the National Survey on Drug Use and Health (NSDUH) that I originally published in this blog (here).   

The new results, seen in the chart at left, are crystal clear.  Everyone knows that teen vaping started after 2010.  Teen smoking had been declining prior to that, but the pace was modest.  The pace accelerated after 2010, and the connection to vaping is not coincidental. 

Unfortunately, NSDUH has never collected teen vaping data -- yet another bizarre omission by government health authorities.

Another important point is that the NSDUH calculated the teen smoking rate in 2018 to be 5%.  This is far lower than NYTS rate of 8.3% for the same year.  I have previously documented that NYTS smoking rates are much higher than those recorded in other federal surveys.