How Big Is the So-Called Teen Vaping Epidemic?

Federal authorities insist upon the existence of a teen vaping epidemic, based on results of the 2018 National Youth Tobacco Survey (NYTS).  They claim that current (past-30-day) use of e-cigarettes surged 78% in 2018, resulting in over three million high school vapers.  

Federal officials ignore two other 2018 estimates from a commercial online panel that are representative of the U.S. population.   It’s called KnowledgePanel, and it’s a product of the German firm GfK (Growth from Knowledge).  While both of these published studies focus on JUUL use, I will examine only their e-cigarette estimates.

The first KnowledgePanel survey was analyzed by Donna Vallone and colleagues at the Truth Initiative, a rabidly anti-tobacco non-profit organization.  I have previously detailed major technical problems with their Juul results, and noted that the authors refused to respond to my questions in a professional forum.  However, it is unlikely that Dr. Vallone underestimated the prevalence of current e-cigarette use, which she reported as 11% among 15-17 year-olds in 2018.

The second KnowledgePanel survey was analyzed by Neil McKeganey and Christopher Russell at the Centre for Substance Use Research in the U.K.  Under contract with JUUL Labs to research the population impact of e-cigarettes, they recently published a study in the American Journal of Health Behavior reporting that current vaping among 15-17 year-olds in the U.S. was 8.7% in 2018.

The chart above presents the prevalence and population estimates from these three surveys.  In summary, the epidemic of vaping among 15-17 year-olds in 2018 involved either 2.3 million, 1.2 million or 952,000 youths.

Federal officials, politicians and tobacco prohibitionists are calling for drastic measures to curtail a teen vaping epidemic.  Their first priority should be to produce accurate estimates justifying both the existence of such an epidemic and any remedial program.

Unacceptable Behavior by Tobacco Control Researchers

Dr. Donna Vallone of the tobacco-prohibitionist Truth Initiative was first author last October of a Tobacco Control article on JUUL users (here).  When the publication was promoted on the Society for Nicotine and Tobacco Research (SRNT) listserv, I asked the authors to resolve some problems with their report.  When they failed to respond to my listserv post, I described the flaws in a blog a week later (here), on November 7.

The day after my blog post, Dr. Vallone responded on the listserve to all of my concerns, except one: failure to disclose information about the most important correlate of JUUL use – other e-cigarette use. 

On November 9 and again on the 30th, I asked on the listserve for Dr. Vallone to provide information about concurrent use of JUULs, other e-cigarettes and cigarettes.  I also sent her private email requests on December 28 and January 18, all to no avail.

Dr. Vallone’s failure to provide critical data suggests that the omission in her research article was intentional, designed to support the case for a “JUUL epidemic.”

Dr. Vallone’s ignoring of repeated data requests illustrates the insularity and arrogance of much of the tobacco research community.  Manuscripts often are not competently reviewed, results not seriously challenged, and over-the-top policy prescriptions not sufficiently justified. 

These behaviors will eventually be deemed unacceptable by the general scientific community.  In the meantime, the Truth Initiative’s findings on JUUL use are incomplete and uninformative.