In June, the Centers for Disease Control released data from
the 2014 National Health Interview Survey, an annual report which has been used
for half a century by the CDC to generate national smoking prevalence
estimates. The agency generally publicizes
cherry-picked data on surveys to emphasize its mission to eradicate tobacco (e-cigarette
use by teens, here),
but it hasn’t commented on smoking rates.
In this column, I offer smoking prevalence estimates from the 2014 NHIS.
The chart below shows the prevalence of current smoking
among adults in 2005, 2010 and 2014. The CDC had previously reported on smoking
trends from 2005 to 2010 (here), so
we can compare that period with 2010 to 2014, during which time e-cigarettes gained
traction in the U.S.
Among men, smoking declined about 10% from 2005 to 2010, and
about 12.5% during the latter four years (the diagonal bars in the chart). The earlier decline among women was modest
(4.4%), but the drop from 2010 to 2014 was an impressive 14.5%.
The prevalence of former smoking was relatively stable for
men and women in all years, which belies the notion that e-cigarettes created a
surge in quitting. The declines in
current smoking are likely a reflection of the increasing percentage of
Americans who have never smoked and the long decline in teenage smoking (here
and here).
In summary, in 2014 the number of Americans who smoke
dropped below 40 million for the first time in the 50 years that the NHIS has provided
smoking statistics. The number of former
smokers in 2014 was 52.2 million.
These numbers do not support the claim of tobacco
prohibitionists that e-cigarettes are “re-normalizing” smoking. Rather, the decline in smoking continues.
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